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    Free Mattress

    By Icebeast | July 9, 2008

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    So we’ll begin my return with a great way to win a “free” mattress. First, I want to say the San Francisco Giants are a horrible baseball team. Evidence of this is a 39-51 record. That said, they’re only SIX games out of first place in the west. How horrible is the west if a crappy team like the Giants is only 6 games out. Well, the answer is pretty crappy. The Dodgers and D’Backs are, at best, mediocre. Who ever wins this division (I call last place Padres), they’re going to get obliterated in the playoffs.

    Now that I’ve got that off my chest, let me get to what I really wanted to discuss. Dumb contests. This is a baseball contest, that also happens to work with my favorite kind of store, Mattress Stores. So the Dodgers have contest where you pick a dodger to hit a home run in the fourth inning. If they hit a home run, you win a queen sized mattress. Alright, let us look at this for a minute. First, the Dodgers, as state above, are mediocre at best. They have hit possibly the fewest home runs in the league. To make things simple, we’ll say 60 home runs in 80 games. That means, there is a 3/4 chance that at any given game, A dodger will hit a home run. Now, let us assume that home runs are evenly distributed amongst all 9 innings (this is probably not true, and doesn’t take into account 8 inning games (batting for the home team) and extra inning games). So, there is a 1/9 chance that, if a home run is hit, it’ll be hit in the fourth.

    Alright, next, if we assume all the hitters have an equal chance to hit a home run (again, obviously false), there is a 1/9 chance you pick the correct hitter. Now you could point out that a pinch hitter might come up for a pitcher cause he’s sucking balls (entirely possible with the Dodgers) or that certain batters are more likely to bat in the fourth, or pitchers possibly don’t give up that many home runs in the fourth. All valid points, but we’ll ignore those for simplicity. So there is a 1/81 chance that the player you picked hits a home run in the fourth inning of a game, if a home run is hit in that game. Now we just multiply that by 3/4, the chance of a home run in that game, and you get … 3/324. So you have a 3/324 chance to pick this one correctly, or roughly 0.9%.

    So now you’re thinking, thats not so bad. But wait, but wait. It gets better. First, before all that math I just did, your text message (yup this costs whatever that dumb text message fee is, 99 cents maybe?) is selected. That’s right. You not only have to get all this right, get lucky, but then, your text message has to be selected. So if 1000 people text in, you have a 1/1000 chance of just getting selected. And that’s if they’re being honest about how they select the text messages. They could just lie and always pick a loser. But if they’re being faithful, thats still a 0.0009% chance to win a whooping Queen mattress, that probably costs $500. So basically 1 / 100000 shot to win $500 bucks of mattress. That is pretty crappy if you ask me. But of course, people are dumb enough to chime in on these types of games. Well, congrats to the mattress store, because they have to be making a fortune.

    Finally, congratulations to Hiroki Kuroda for an almost perfect game. Damn Teixeira breaking it up and breaking my heart. And how the hell is Teixeira pronounced Ta-share-a, crazy foreigners.

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    Topics: Icebeast, Rants | No Comments »